Via Kobiessi Letter: “15+ year Treasuries have returned -2% per year on average over the last 10 years, their worst performance in history. This is also only the 2nd period in data going back to 1936 where Treasuries have posted negative 10-year annualized returns. By comparison, US stocks have returned +15% per year on average, while commodities have returned +11% per year on average over the same timeframe. To put this into perspective, before the 2020 pandemic, Treasuries gained +9% per year on average over a 10-year period. Since the start of 2020, the popular bond-tracking ETF $TLT has dropped -26%, with its biggest drawdown at -34%. The bond market is no longer the safe haven it once was.”
Mark Skidmore is Professor of Economics at Michigan State University where he holds the Morris Chair in State and Local Government Finance and Policy. His research focuses on topics in public finance, regional economics, and the economics of natural disasters. Mark created the Lighthouse Economics website and blog to share economic research and information relevant for navigating tumultuous times.
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