It Might Be Time to Say the Yield Curve Has Bottomed

“After relentlessly flattening and experiencing one of the deepest inversions for decades, there are mounting signs the yield curve has bottomed. The yield curve gets a lot of air time these days. By now, every man and his dog knows that its inversions precede recessions. But there is too much variance in the length of time until the recession starts for that knowledge to be of much practical use. Of more utility is when the yield curve begins to steepen, as this typically happens when a downturn is much nearer at hand.”

Published by markskidmore

Mark Skidmore is Professor of Economics at Michigan State University where he holds the Morris Chair in State and Local Government Finance and Policy. His research focuses on topics in public finance, regional economics, and the economics of natural disasters. Mark created the Lighthouse Economics website and blog to share economic research and information relevant for navigating tumultuous times.

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