Covid-19 Vaccine Boosters for Young Adults: A Risk-Benefit Assessment and Five Ethical Arguments Against Mandates at Universities

Abstract

Students at North American universities risk disenrollment due to third dose Covid-19 vaccine mandates. We present a risk-benefit assessment of boosters in this age group and provide five ethical arguments against mandates. We estimate that 22,000 – 30,000 previously uninfected adults aged 18-29 must be boosted with an mRNA vaccine to prevent one Covid-19 hospitalisation. Using CDC and sponsor-reported adverse event data, we find that booster mandates may cause a net expected harm: per Covid-19 hospitalisation prevented in previously uninfected young adults, we anticipate 18 to 98 serious adverse events, including 1.7 to 3.0 booster-associated myocarditis cases in males, and 1,373 to 3,234 cases of grade ≥3 reactogenicity which interferes with daily activities. Given the high prevalence of post-infection immunity, this risk-benefit profile is even less favourable. University booster mandates are unethical because: 1) no formal risk-benefit assessment exists for this age group; 2) vaccine mandates may result in a net expected harm to individual young people; 3) mandates are not proportionate: expected harms are not outweighed by public health benefits given the modest and transient effectiveness of vaccines against transmission; 4) US mandates violate the reciprocity principle because rare serious vaccine-related harms will not be reliably compensated due to gaps in current vaccine injury schemes; and 5) mandates create wider social harms. We consider counter-arguments such as a desire for socialisation and safety and show that such arguments lack scientific and/or ethical support. Finally, we discuss the relevance of our analysis for current 2-dose Covid-19 vaccine mandates in North America.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4206070

Kevin Bardosh

University of Washington; University of Edinburgh – Edinburgh Medical School

Allison Krug

Artemis Biomedical Communications LLC

Euzebiusz Jamrozik

University of Oxford

Trudo Lemmens

University of Toronto – Faculty of Law

Salmaan Keshavjee

Harvard University – Harvard Medical School

Vinay Prasad

University of California, San Francisco (UCSF)

Martin A. Makary

Johns Hopkins University – Department of Surgery

Stefan Baral

John Hopkins University

Tracy Beth Høeg

Florida Department of Health; Sierra Nevada Memorial Hospital

Published by markskidmore

Mark Skidmore is Professor of Economics at Michigan State University where he holds the Morris Chair in State and Local Government Finance and Policy. His research focuses on topics in public finance, regional economics, and the economics of natural disasters. Mark created the Lighthouse Economics website and blog to share economic research and information relevant for navigating tumultuous times.

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