Two Forecasts of Monetary Policy

In this article, Nomura forecasts a whole one percentage point increase in the interest rate, a major tightening of money supply in an effort to subdue inflation. In this interview on USAWatchdog, Craig Hemke doesn’t necessarily disagree that the Federal Reserve may temporarily raise rates. However, he says that they will quickly reverse course and double down on “printing” money because policymakers have no choice. They must in order to keep the house of cards from tumbling down. And when they reverse course, safe haven commodity assets like gold and silver will take off. I am not sure which way it will go, but I’m putting my money on a reversal of tightening sooner rather than later.

Published by markskidmore

Mark Skidmore is Professor of Economics at Michigan State University where he holds the Morris Chair in State and Local Government Finance and Policy. His research focuses on topics in public finance, regional economics, and the economics of natural disasters. Mark created the Lighthouse Economics website and blog to share economic research and information relevant for navigating tumultuous times.

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