One Week Into the Russian Special Operation in the Ukraine – Update (The Saker)

“Here are the stone cold fact about the Ukie military:

  • Air Force: gone
  • Navy: gone
  • Long range, standoff capabilities: gone
  • Air defenses: gone
  • Regular ground forces: no less than 65% (some say up to 80%) of the Ukie military is surrounded and condemned
  • Assorted Nazi units: I don’t have the figures, but A LOT of them are now either in the Donbass cauldron or in Mariupol.  They will mostly not be taken prisoner, except for the leaders who will be tried and sentenced for their innumerable crimes.

So, in terms of the Russian goals, here is how I would score this:

  • Ukrainian disarmament: mostly already done, the Ukraine has nothing to threaten Russia with
  • Ukrainian denazification: only at the early start, but conditions are excellent and I am confident that most of the hardcore Nazis will soon be dead
So, what’s my “final intermediate conclusion” after week 1?

The West gave Russia a bloody nose by forcing her intervention, thereby crushing any chance for the EU to get decolonized in the next decade or more.

The West gave Russia an even bloodier nose by very effectively controlling the narrative.

But what’s next?

Russia will/has disarm(ed) and will soon denazify the Ukraine, that is a given.

But what after that?  Please remember that this is NOT about the Ukraine, this is about the entire future security architecture of Europe.” (read on for full evaluation)

One week into the Russian special operation in the Ukraine – update | The Vineyard of the Saker

Published by markskidmore

Mark Skidmore is Professor of Economics at Michigan State University where he holds the Morris Chair in State and Local Government Finance and Policy. His research focuses on topics in public finance, regional economics, and the economics of natural disasters. Mark created the Lighthouse Economics website and blog to share economic research and information relevant for navigating tumultuous times.

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