Worldwide Bayesian Causal Impact Analysis of
Vaccine Administration on Deaths and Cases
Associated with COVID-19: A BigData Analysis of
145 Countries

“This study analyzed publicly available COVID-19 data from OWID (Hannah Ritchie and Roser 2020) utlizing the R package CausalIy impact (Brodersen et al. 2015) to determine the causal effect of the administration of vaccines on two dependent variables that have been measured cumulatively throughout the pandemic: total deaths per million (y1) and total cases per million (y2). After eliminating all results from countries with p > 0.05, there were 128 countries for y1 and 103 countries for y2 to analyze in this fashion, comprising 145 unique countries in total (avg. p < 0.004). Results indicate that the treatment (vaccine administration) has a strong and statistically significant propensity to causally increase the values in either y1 or y2 over and above what would have been expected with no treatment. y1 showed an increase/decrease ratio of (+115/-13), which means 89.84% of statistically significant countries showed an increase in total deaths per million associated with COVID-19 due directly to the causal impact of treatment initiation. y2 showed an increase/decrease ratio of (+105/-16) which means 86.78% of statistically significant countries showed an increase in total cases per million of COVID-19 due directly to the causal impact of treatment initiation. Causal impacts of the treatment on y1 ranges from -19% to +19015% with an average causal impact of +463.13%. Causal impacts of the treatment on y2 ranges from -46% to +12240% with an average causal impact of +260.88%. Hypothesis 1 Null can be rejected for a large majority of countries.”

Beattie-K.-Worldwide-Bayesian-Causal-Impact-Analysis-of-Vaccine-Administration-on-Deaths-and-Cases-Associated-with-COVID-19_-A-BigData-Analysis-of-145-Countries.pdf (lesdeqodeurs.fr)

Published by markskidmore

Mark Skidmore is Professor of Economics at Michigan State University where he holds the Morris Chair in State and Local Government Finance and Policy. His research focuses on topics in public finance, regional economics, and the economics of natural disasters. Mark created the Lighthouse Economics website and blog to share economic research and information relevant for navigating tumultuous times.

Leave a Reply

%d bloggers like this: